Why the Korean economy says it is a crisis

What does the economy hate the most?” There are many answers to this question, but few people will deny this answer. It is'uncertainty'. In this context, there is nothing more difficult than predicting the New Year's economic situation. There are countless variables to consider, because the report card of the Korean economy, which is highly dependent on exports, is highly dependent on external variables. Currently, the internal and external uncertainty is greater than ever, and the uncertainty shows no signs of being resolved for the time being. So predicting the economic situation in 2020 is no easy task. When faced with difficulties, we look for experts. However, the prospects of economic experts are also mixed. Optimism and pessimism intersect. How to do it. In fact, the analysis presented by numerous economic experts at the beginning of the year is often wrong when looking back in the same month the following year. Nevertheless, we follow the economic outlook every year. Why? Why do we repeatedly look for an analysis that is likely to be wrong anyway at the same time every year?

 

This is because if you follow the analysis of bright experts, you can find some clues and hints. Although the conclusions of optimism and pessimism are different, the “materials” used by economic experts to make their judgments are surprisingly similar in many cases. Different judgments about materials mean that the conclusion that the Korean economy is outlook is different. Then it becomes clear what we need to do. It is to clearly identify the materials that experts have used to draw conclusions, and see how the judgments about those materials are mixed. That way, we can make our own judgments to the conclusion even if we don't rely on the authority of experts. This is the way to minimize uncertainty.

 

“The Korean economy in 2020 is'struggling' in'Orimujung.'” 43 domestic economic experts, including Professor Lee Geun of Seoul National University, suggested these two words as key keywords surrounding the Korean economy for the new year. The level of concern is less than that of the ‘internal exchange’ presented in 2019. Why is it'struggling' to'orimujung'? The reason for this is the large uncertainty in the global economy. Professor Lee explained, "The new year is uncertain due to the trade dispute between the US and China, the possibility of a decline in the US economy, the export conflict between Korea and Japan, the UK's withdrawal from the European Union (Brexit), inter-Korean economic cooperation and denuclearization. Excluding the issues of Korea, Japan, and North and South Korea, most of the variables are difficult to lead by ourselves. So struggling comes naturally.