ADB raises Korean economic growth prospects... “Export recovery tax”

ADB forecasts slightly higher growth prospects in Korea this year -0.9%… Maintain 3.3% next year Economic growth rate of 46 Asian countries ?0.4% forecast... China is 2.1% this year and 7.7% next year The Asian Development Bank (ADB) predicted this year's economic growth rate of Korea at -0.9%, slightly higher than it was announced in September. Despite the recent atmosphere of re-proliferation of Corona 19, it is predicted that it will not get worse thanks to the export recovery. According to ADB's'Supplement of Asian Economic Outlook' on the 10th, the ADB forecasted this year's Korean economic growth rate to be -0.9%, -0.1% higher than the forecast in September. As the global economy was hit hard by Corona 19, ADB significantly lowered Korea's GDP growth rate forecast to -1.0% at the time of the forecast in June, and maintained it in September. As the economic shock caused by Corona 19 continues, reverse growth is inevitable, but it is predicted that there will be a slight improvement without any further decline even with the additional shock from the third recurrence. The ADB predicted that the impact of the Korean economy will be less than expected due to a partial recovery in private consumption due to the government's continuous expansion of fiscal and monetary policies, and the increase in exports in the information and communication technology (IT) sector such as semiconductors.

 

It was expected to be 1.1%. The forecast for next year's growth rate was also lowered by 0.3%p from 3.1% to 2.8%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has presented Korea's forecast for this year's economic growth rate at -1.9%, and the forecast for next year's growth rate at 2.9%. The average economic growth rate of 46 member countries in Asia (excluding Japan, Australia, and New Zealand) was raised by 0.3%p from -0.7% this year to -0.4%. It remained at 6.8% next year. China's GDP growth forecast was raised from 1.8% to 2.1%, and next year it is forecast to 7.7%. Hong Kong also revised from -6.5% to -5.5%, with a growth rate of 5.1% next year. Vietnam raised its forecast from 1.8% to 2.3%, but lowered its forecast for next year from 6.3% to 6.1%. Taiwan has also sharply increased from 0.8% to 1.7%, while it has decreased from 3.5% to 3.3% next year. The ADB predicted that the risk factors caused by Corona 19 could continue until the stability is guaranteed after the vaccine is developed, and it is distributed collectively in each country. As tensions arising from the trade and technology disputes between the US and China are affecting the whole of Asia, he predicted that it would be another risk factor until there is a complete reconciliation between the two countries.