Japanese economy is expected to grow moderately at the level of potential growth rate

Although the Japanese economy may be slightly slower compared to 2019, it is predicted that it will continue to grow moderately at the level of potential growth in 2020. Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (President Pyeong-oh Kwon), Japan's Tokyo Trade Office, said that exports will continue to be sluggish for the time being in Japan's economic outlook for 2020, but private consumption will continue to increase and facility investment will continue to continue, leading to moderate economic growth in 2020. He said it was expected. According to the Tokyo Trade Office, the Japanese economy was affected by the global economic slowdown in the first half of 2019, and the external demand continued to be sluggish. In addition, it was analyzed that there is a lack of power because the trend of saving is growing as anxiety increases in the future due to the problem of 20 million yen after retirement. In the case of facility investment, the demand for livelihood investment due to the shortage of workers is still high, and the trend is solid.

 

With the trend of declining corporate profits and the growth rate below the previous year, the real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in 2019 was predicted to be 0.7%. In the 2020 outlook, foreign demand is expected to recover, and exports are expected to recover as IT-related materials have passed the low. Looking at the global economic forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economic growth rate in 2020 is expected to be 3.4%, which is expected to improve from 2019 (3.0%), which is also expected to act as a plus. In the case of domestic demand, in the first half of 2020, it is expected that the increase in inbound and improved consumption mindset following the holding of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games will act as a factor that promotes consumption. In the second half, on the other hand, consumption is expected to contract due to the expiration of the deadline for measures to reduce the burden of consumption increases, such as the loss of such positive factors and the point reduction system for cashless payments. The real GDP growth rate in 2020 is estimated at 0.5%, which is less than that of 2019.

 

The US economy is driven by personal consumption, a pillar, and continues to expand. The economic expansion is expected to continue in 2020 as well. As the unemployment rate in September 2019 declined for the first time in 50 years, the supply and demand of labor is desperate, so wages will continue to rise, and personal consumption is expected to continue increasing. The trade friction between the US and China is having a negative impact on business activities, but ahead of the 2020 presidential election, President Trump is not expected to put excessive brakes on the economy due to trade policy with China. In addition, the fact that the FRB can take measures to cut interest rates is expected to serve as a strength of the US economy. The Chinese economy continues to slow down due to the effects of trade friction between the US and China in earnest due to the side effects of the government's policy to cut excess debt (deleverage). The real GDP growth rate for July-September 2019 was 6%, the lowest level of the government's target. Currently, it has turned to a full-fledged economic recovery driven by fiscal and financial policies such as a large-scale tax cut, a large increase in the scope of issuance of local government special bonds, and a reduction in the reserve reserve ratio.