[Korea 2021 Real Estate Outlook]

[Editor's Note] Despite the government's high-strength real estate market regulation, house prices in 2020 surged at the highest rate ever. In 2021, low interest rates are continuing, and it is expected to act as an anxiety factor, such as a decrease in the number of occupants and an increase in the number of one or two people. The aftermath of the lease law is also acting as a catalyst for an increase in jeonse prices. Through 30 real estate experts, we forecast the real estate market in 2021 and the policy impact of the new Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Byun Chang-heum. [Seoul = Newspim] Reporter Seongsu Kim = 26 out of 30 real estate experts predicted that apartment prices would rise to around 5% next year. This is because multi-homed sales will increase ahead of the heavy capital gains tax on June 1 next year, but the'balloon effect' will appear in complexes with less government regulations. In particular, it is expected that the prices of mid- to low-priced apartments with relatively low loan regulations will increase.

 

◆ Survey of 30 experts in the real estate market… 28 people "Rise in house prices next year" On the 30th, Newspim surveyed 30 real estate experts from academia, research institutes and industry, and 28 experts, or 93.3%, predicted that apartment prices will ``rise'' next year. The number of respondents who expected'consolidation' was 2 (6.7%) and'fall' was 0 (0%). 26 people, 86.7% of the total, estimated that the rate of increase in apartment prices next year will be around 5%. One respondent said that the increase rate would be more than '10%' and two responded that it would be'consolidated'.

 

The main reason for the rise in house prices next year was'liquidity due to low interest rates' (14 people). Following ▲ excessive regulation by the government (6 people) ▲ shortage of supply (9 people) ▲ the 3rd lease law (1 person). The government is putting the responsibility for rising house prices on'speculation forces' such as multi-homed people, but many experts say that the more fundamental cause is'excess liquidity due to low interest rates'. "The low interest rate phenomenon will continue until 2022 to overcome the economic downturn caused by Corona 19," said Ham Young-jin, director of Jikbang's Big Data Lab. Said. However, he said, "There is no investment place to replace real estate assets, so for the time being, interest in the real estate market will continue."